EDDIE CROSS INTERVIEW - Wednesday 2nd April, 2008
Zimbabwe, the country whose name is on everybody's lips right
now, since the elections last weekend literally in a state of suspended
political animation. Has Robert Mugabe been beaten? If he has, will he
go? If he doesn't, will there be blood on the streets of his
basket-case nation with its 80% unemployment and a ridiculous 100,000%
inflation? In a few words, whither poor old Zimbabwe? Meanwhile, other
pundits are predicting possibly the worst outcome, a no one winner and
a run-off between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. George Negus spoke from
Bulawayo with Eddie Cross, a senior MP from the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change led by Morgan Tsvangirai, who, it is believed, could
claim victory against Mugabe any time now.
GEORGE NEGUS: Eddie Cross, from our distance it would appear
that your
country at the moment is in a state of suspended political animation.
How would you describe it? There is much confusion about what is
exactly going on and what the outcome might be.
EDDIE CROSS, ZIMBABWE MP: George, I think your overall
impression is
about right. Certainly there is a lot of tension here, a lot of
anxiety. People are waiting for the final results. The key thing is, of
course, the presidential ballot. We're almost completed with the
parliamentary results. It looks like the MDC will have a working
majority in the house.
GEORGE NEGUS: Right.
EDDIE CROSS: But the presidential ballot is the key one
because it is
the president that forms the government.
GEORGE NEGUS: We actually heard this afternoon our time,
middle of the
night your time, that it's possible that Morgan Tsvangirai could claim
that because you guys are in front in the parliamentary elections that
he, in fact, probably could claim the presidency as well and Robert
Mugabe won't continue beyond this stage. Do you think there could be a
run-off, or is it likely that Mugabe could concede?
EDDIE CROSS: It would appear almost certainly that Mugabe is
going to
be soundly defeated. And I think the big issue is, what is he going to
do? Is he going to concede defeat and retire from the field or is he
going to demand a run-off? And I think that's...
GEORGE NEGUS: What's your punt?
EDDIE CROSS: I think ultimately he will be forced to concede
and to
retire and the only issue then remaining is whether there will be a
run-off between Morgan Tsvangirai and the third contender, which was
Makoni.
GEORGE NEGUS: Right. That would seem like a waste of time,
really. It
would be a foregone conclusion, I would have thought, that Morgan
Tsvangirai would win that sort of run-off.
EDDIE CROSS: Well, I would expect so, but you never know with
these
guys. The ZANU-PF would then probably throw their weight behind Simba
Makoni and it would be a combined ZANU-PF and Simba Makoni effort
against Morgan Tsvangirai.
GEORGE NEGUS: Is blood on the streets, to use a dreadful
journalistic
cliche, is blood on the streets a possibility if they go to that stage
where Mugabe would not concede even though the popular vote suggests
that he should go?
EDDIE CROSS: I think there is no doubt about that. I think on
Sunday
night when they were informed of the results of the election, the real
results. The real results were 58% for Morgan Tsvangirai, 41% for
Mugabe and 15% for Simba Makoni. And they then spent a panicky a few
hours discussing what to do with it and Mugabe wanted to simply ram
through an announcement that would give him 53% of the popular vote -
more than double what he had actually received. He got 27%, sorry, 27%
of the ballot.
GEORGE NEGUS: Right.
EDDIE CROSS: And now that would be double what he actually
received and
eventually they compromised on a manipulation which would reduce
Morgan's total tally to 49%, give Mugabe 41% instead of 27% and give
Makoni about 8%. So that is what they have been working towards, and I
think they are very close to achieving that in the actual results that
have come out so far.
GEORGE NEGUS: Eddie, are we saying here that the rigging is
not a
rigging, as it were, to get Mugabe up, but rigging it so that when he
goes he can go with some sort of dignity that he went as a democrat and
accepted the result? Is that what it was all about?
EDDIE CROSS: I think there was a compromise, that was the
compromise.
GEORGE NEGUS: That's incredible.
EDDIE CROSS: To face it with some dignity, that is quite
incredible.
GEORGE NEGUS: That is quite incredible.
EDDIE CROSS: And it's stuff worthy of a real spy thriller, you
know,
someone has got to write a book on this.
GEORGE NEGUS: Eddie, There's lots of talk here at the moment
about
deals. Let's say, for argument sake, that Mugabe does concede. What
happens? Does he leave the country in the middle of the night a la Idi
Amin or does he stay on his mansion for the rest of his life because
people will be so pleased to see him go they couldn't care less what he
does and he can stay there if he likes, so long as he stays out of it?
EDDIE CROSS: Well, I think Morgan Tsvangirai has said that we
will
allow him to retire with dignity. And I think he means that, just that.
But of course he's got the problem now, we restore the rule of law,
anybody in Zimbabwe who has been affected by the Mugabe regime can
easily take the matter up in the courts of law. There is also the
International Court in The Hague, which would obviously be open to any
kind of application by ordinary civilians here who have been affected
by the human rights abuse. And there have been many, many political
murders, even in the last year. So he wouldn't be safe here, I don't
think. And he would be unwise to remain in Zimbabwe.
GEORGE NEGUS: This is a man who has been accused of thousands
of
murders of his political opponents or people who aren't from his tribal
party. I mean, he must surely be in a position where murder charges or
genocide charges could be brought against him?
EDDIE CROSS: Yes, much like Charles Taylor and Mengistu. I
mean,
Mengistu still lives in Harare. I don't know whether he still is there.
If I was Mengistu I would be making exit plans very quickly, but
Mengistu, for example, was removed from Addis Ababa by the Americans.
An American military jet actually flew him to Harare and they did that
because it was the easiest way out, that was the cheapest way, the
least violent way of getting rid of him. And I think Mugabe faces the
same kind of scenario.
GEORGE NEGUS: Exactly. We're almost out of time, if I could
ask you
this. The most baffling aspect of all of this for us outside your
country is how the heck did this go on for so long? This man has gone
from being a national hero to the ultimate hero-villain story. What
hypnotic hold did he have over the people of Zimbabwe for so long that
this has gone on the way it has and the rest of the world stood by
watching it happen?
EDDIE CROSS: Well, he was protected for a long time by the
political
community in Africa and particularly by South Africa for South Africa's
own internal needs. They protected him in the United Nations, they
protected him in the AU, they supported him politically at home, they
recognised the elections that he conducted, even though he falsified
them on a fairly dramatic basis in 2002 and 2005. And I think then he
had control of the state machinery and so long as he had effective
control of the army, the police and the air force, he was able to
enforce his dictatorship here. You know, we have been under more or
less a military junta for the last four years, five years, albeit with
a civilian face in the form of Mugabe and I think that is how they have
maintained it.
GEORGE NEGUS: Eddie, we will have to leave it there, but
thanks very
much for your time. It does sound like a movie script, you're
absolutely right, and let's hope that it works out the way most people
in the civilised world would want it to. But thank you very much for a
time.
EDDIE CROSS: It's a pleasure, George. God bless.
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