PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE INTERVIEW - Wednesday 18th July, 2007
GEORGE NEGUS: Hugh, the debate is raging over the surge in
Washington and even Republicans are jumping ship on the whole score.
Why is the silence almost deafening in this country on the whole
question of Iraq, let alone the surge at the moment? Why has it gone
off our political radar?
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE, HEAD OF STRATEGIC AND DEFENCE STUDIES
CENTRE,
ANU: Well, I think there are two parts to the answer of that question,
George. The first is, of course, from John Howard's point of view Iraq
has ceased to be the positive that it was even in 2004. That is, back
in 2004 and earlier, John Howard's staunch position on Iraq was seen as
consolidating his reputation as a strong national security leader. But
particularly since last year, I think, the association with Iraq hasn't
been a positive for him and he's been trying to turn down the knob on
it a bit.
On the other hand, for Labor to overemphasise Iraq starts to raise
questions about its commitment to the US alliance. And I think what
Labor is calculating, what Kevin Rudd is calculating is that although
the Australian public dislikes Iraq intensely, they still love the US
alliance, and Rudd doesn't want to push his luck on that issue too
hard.
GEORGE NEGUS: Softly, softly catchy monkey. I mean, it sounds
to me
like you are saying that both John Howard and Kevin Rudd are stymied by
the debate and the indecision in America.
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: That is exactly right. The debate in
America has
moved a long way. John Howard and other Government ministers have
really failed to follow the debate in the United States. They are still
talking about Iraq, when they do, in rather black-and-white terms -
either you stay or you go - whereas in America now you've got this much
more complicated, confused debate with Republicans aligning themselves
with Democrats, different models on the table. All of that has really
passed the Australian debate by.
GEORGE NEGUS: I talked to Dr Kimberly Kagan, whose husband is
one of
the architects of the whole surge idea, and she says to say that the
surge is failing is absurd. Now as I understand it, you don't think the
surge was ever going to work, isn't working now.
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: I didn't think the surge was ever going
to work.
I don't see any evidence that it is working now. That is not to say it
is not having some effects in some locations but that is not good
enough. What you need to look for is whether or not the US military can
change the nature of the political situation on the ground in Iraq. I
don't think there was ever a prospect that an extra 20,000 or 30,000
troops could do that. And although I think there have been some
positive developments - as we have seen in Anbar province, for example
- I don't think they have primarily been the result of the surge and I
don't think the surge has yet made a decisive difference on the ground,
and I don't think it will.
GEORGE NEGUS: Do people like yourselves actually postulate on
how many
troops they would need to go in there and clean up this insurgent mess?
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: Well, every case is different of course
but if
you look back through history, look at the kinds of situations in which
external armed forces have succeeded in stabilising a very complex and
troubled situation, as we see in Iraq, it is more like 5% of the
population you need. So you would be talking about something like a
million troops on the ground.
GEORGE NEGUS: A million? A million?
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: It is unthinkable. It is just
unthinkable. I
mean, the Americans don't have them but nobody has armies of that size
any more. So I think even if you are optimistic and you halved that to
500,000, that is still way above what the US the capacity that the US
has. That is one of the reasons why I have always been very gloomy
about the prospects of any kind of military resolution of the situation
on the ground in Iraq. And of course the politics remains as complex as
ever, perhaps more complex than ever now.
GEORGE NEGUS: So with all this indecision and bickering going
on even
between Republicans in America, do you see, as an analyst, do you see
any viable withdrawal option whatsoever?
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: Clearly the Americans have got to the
point where
they would very much like to get out of Iraq but they still have very
important interests in Iraq. They are, I think, rightly concerned about
the potential for Iraq to become another haven for terrorists and they
are rightly concerned about the potential for a weak Iraq to become a
target for Iranian influence, become a kind of an Iranian satrap, if
you like. And I think the problem for America is that reducing
significantly the levels of US forces there would make the internal
politics in Iraq even worse. It would provide the opportunity for
al-Qaeda to build up in Iraq as a base for operations elsewhere. And it
would be an invitation for the Iranians to come in.
GEORGE NEGUS: Michael Ware from CNN told me that he felt that
the
danger of course of any sort of withdrawal - short-term or longer-term
- was asking for trouble, that it would open up the whole thing to a
regional conflict.
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: I think that is exactly right. One way
of
thinking about that is it becomes a little bit like sort of Lebanon on
steroids. You've got a very weak state there with a lot of other
neighbouring states with very strong interests involved and they will
all try and get in and have their piece. But the reason why Iran is the
most worrying is of course because Iran is the strongest of those
states.
GEORGE NEGUS: Hugh, if you are quoted correctly in my
research, you
said "There is no law that says it has to be a happy ending." Does that
mean to say that you still see this as a very unhappy ending?
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: I do, George. I don't think there are
any good
resolutions here. I don't think the United States can get out but nor
do I think they can stay and make a real difference. So I think the
real risk for America is that 5 years, 10 years, 20 years from now we
could still see substantial American troops on the ground in Iraq, not
able to stabilise the place but not able to leave.
GEORGE NEGUS: Hugh White, thanks for being gloomy but
realistic. Thanks
for your time.
PROFESSOR HUGH WHITE: My pleasure. Goodnight.